Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 36.175116 42.929958 50.395223 59.229548 69.368917 80.611705 93.989950
2024-10-20 28.690271 38.256056 49.884192 64.930163 83.739329 106.322348 135.316312
2024-10-27 20.871334 30.659879 43.522439 61.393415 85.268381 115.718358 157.084860
2024-11-03 17.620924 27.998452 42.511170 63.831252 93.805256 133.816782 190.502704
2024-11-10 15.535132 26.435937 42.522742 67.301459 103.656216 154.043223 227.910324
2024-11-17 13.758085 24.942419 42.279300 70.147421 112.614459 173.446744 265.314600
2024-11-24 11.771366 22.726239 40.548583 70.407489 117.590541 187.323611 295.609782
2024-12-01 9.727648 20.027288 37.623250 68.345411 118.660874 195.323794 317.621158
2024-12-08 8.452522 18.448616 36.293859 68.614809 123.237626 208.697001 348.230166
2024-12-15 7.494588 17.284944 35.496793 69.618748 128.966195 224.074363 382.642634
2024-12-22 5.858649 14.473141 31.331841 64.250101 123.521177 221.270493 388.331554
2024-12-29 5.292002 13.769686 31.002148 65.692366 129.755223 237.626145 425.303733
2025-01-05 4.347743 12.163216 28.904787 64.040186 131.183215 247.433866 454.549610
2025-01-12 4.215773 12.428897 30.694974 70.175793 147.451401 283.857926 530.895824
2025-01-19 3.305574 10.573113 27.695643 66.396859 144.920651 287.580382 552.277442
2025-01-26 2.994092 10.173228 27.816795 69.005100 154.751726 313.745919 613.823423
2025-02-02 2.785890 10.003342 28.431864 72.715777 167.036285 345.105773 686.250607
2025-02-09 2.559589 9.723250 28.733829 75.757615 178.208219 375.089774 757.850159
2025-02-16 2.223534 9.017240 27.862527 76.035527 183.702513 394.758777 811.834940
2025-02-23 1.832120 8.010136 26.031846 73.831717 183.739455 403.963198 847.029001
2025-03-02 1.596426 7.452722 25.292384 74.119665 189.108764 423.782476 903.023031
2025-03-09 1.418611 7.045975 24.896254 75.192644 196.269589 447.536010 967.658676
2025-03-16 1.070427 5.850886 21.978987 69.453112 187.534693 438.723839 969.148761